Who Will Republicans Nominate to Challenge Senator Sherrod Brown in the 2024 Ohio Senate Election?
The Senate race in Ohio is the most important election of 2024, so who will Republicans nominate to challenge Senator Sherrod Brown?
Introduction
On March 19, 2024, voters in Ohio will head to the polls to vote in the Republican primary election for Senate. Three candidates are running in the primary election: Bernie Moreno, Frank LaRose, and Matt Dolan. Whoever wins will face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the November general election. Which Republican will emerge victorious on election day? And will they defeat Sen. Brown in November?
This essay answers these questions and offers my own predictions about the election results. Additionally, this essay explores the granular details of the 2024 Ohio Senate election, because sometimes only raw political science can cut through all the bullshit.
Context
Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia — states that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020 — all have highly vulnerable Democratic Senators running for re-election. These three elections will determine whether Democrats retain a Senate majority. Republicans must win two out of three races to flip the Senate.
The 2024 Senate race in Ohio will be particularly competitive. That’s why the outcome of the Republican primary is so important — Republicans must choose whoever will pose the strongest challenge to Sen. Brown in the general election. In 2018, Sen. Brown won re-election 53%-47%. Furthermore, a Republican victory in November means that both of Ohio’s Senate seats will be held by Republicans, further cementing Ohio’s emerging status as a solid red state.
Past Elections
Ohio has become more Republican over the past few election cycles. Republicans have a trifecta of power in Ohio, controlling the Governorship and both chambers of the Ohio General Assembly.
Trump won Ohio by about 8% in both 2016 and 2020. In Ohio’s last Senate election in 2022, J.D. Vance (R) defeated Tim Ryan (D) by 6%.
Will Ohio continue to be a swing state? Moreover, if Ohio turns red, what will that mean for future Presidential elections? Ohio is regarded as the “bellwether state” — a political barometer that indicates how the rest of the country will vote. For whatever reason, Ohio is uniquely representative of the American people, making it a common test market for new products. This translates to politics — Ohio almost always votes for the winner in Presidential elections, and virtually no candidate has won the Presidency without winning Ohio. What does this mean if Ohio is no longer a swing state? If the bellwether state is becoming more Republican, does that mean the whole country is becoming more Republican? The 2024 Ohio Senate race may prove to be a crucial turning point in the trajectory of American politics.
Meet the Candidates
Bernie Moreno is a businessman who has never held political office before, although he previously ran for Senate in 2022. Frank LaRose is the Ohio Secretary of State. Matt Dolan is a state legislator.
Both LaRose and Dolan are establishment candidates who have been involved in Ohio state government for many years. In contrast, Moreno labels himself an “outsider,” likening himself to Trump. In the post-Trump era, many Republican candidates are mimicking Trump. It works for some candidates such as J.D. Vance but proves unsuccessful for others.
LaRose is an establishment candidate who theoretically should be the frontrunner — but for whatever reason he isn’t. LaRose has the support of a well-funded Super PAC. LaRose still has a chance of winning though.
Dolan is a former state legislator who’s running on his legislative record. Dolan is self-funding his campaign (as is Moreno).
Messaging
The following quotes are sourced from Ballotpedia.
Dolan’s main campaign message is that his opponents “have routinely broken their promises to voters and committed gaffes that place Republican efforts to defeat Sherrod Brown and take back the U.S. Senate in jeopardy.” This may appear to be a good message, but it relies too heavily on attacking his opponents, which is a mistake.
LaRose’s main campaign message is that he is a “battle-tested conservative with the experience, work ethic, consistent record, and sense of service to make a difference.” This messaging is better. It’s a decent message, but the vision is vague. To make a difference how?
Moreno’s main campaign message is that “for too long, the men and women who move Ohio forward, American workers, have been left behind by career politicians like Sherrod Brown and Joe Biden.” This may seem to have the same problem as Dolan’s message — relying on attacks on his opponents — but it’s a winning message because it reminds Republican voters of the stakes in the general election while also invoking Joe Biden, who’s especially unpopular with Republicans. This message contextualizes the primary election on a grand scale, raising the stakes of the election.
Notable Endorsements
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine and Lt. Governor Jon Husted have both declined to make endorsements, as well as the Ohio Republican Party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It’s typical for the Ohio Republican Party to remain neutral during primary elections.
Below is a list of some notable endorsements:
Moreno:
· Vivek Ramaswamy
· Sen. Ted Cruz
· Sen. Rand Paul
· Sen. Marco Rubio
· Congressman Jim Jordan
· Sen. J.D. Vance
· Newt Gingrich
· Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost
· Club for Growth
· Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with LaRose)
· Turning Point Action (TPUSA)
LaRose:
· Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with Moreno)
· It’s worth mentioning that LaRose was previously endorsed by Trump in the 2022 election — the only endorsement of a Secretary of State
Dolan:
· National Sheriffs’ Association
· the Cleveland Plain Dealer
· Dee Haslam and Jimmy Haslam, both co-owners of the Cleveland Browns NFL team
Money, Money, Money
Now for one of the most important factors — fundraising. Below is a breakdown of campaign finances as of December 31, 2023:
Moreno:
· Raised: $7,253,753
· Spent: $5,250,499
· Cash on hand: $2,003,254
LaRose:
· Raised: $1,854,196
· Spent: $1,082,585
· Cash on hand: $771,611
Dolan:
· Raised: $9,142,313
· Spent: $4,336,931
· Cash on hand: $4,851,971
These seem like large sums of money, but Republicans are up against big bucks. For comparison, here are the same numbers for Sen. Brown:
· Raised: $27,838,244.47
· Spent: $14,594,991.85
· Cash on hand: $14,614,497.88
Polling
For reference, I’m writing this article in February 2024 with just one month left before the primary election.
It’s a tight race. This election is predicted by many sources to be a tossup, including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
LaRose dominated the polls for most of 2023 — that is until November, when things began to change. Starting in late November, Moreno has pulled ahead of LaRose, winning four out of the last five polls conducted in Ohio.
The most recent polls are from December and January. The recent polling tells an intriguing story.
Moreno’s campaign released an internal poll with the following results:
1. Moreno: 23%
2. LaRose: 19%
3. Dolan: 18%
The next poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, is an anomaly:
1. LaRose: 33%
2. Dolan: 18%
3. Moreno: 12%
The following poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, has Moreno leading again:
1. Moreno: 22%
2. LaRose: 18%
3. Dolan: 16%
The three polls were conducted within days of each other, so it’s noteworthy that the numbers for Moreno and LaRose are so different. The most recent poll was conducted by Emerson College in late January:
1. Moreno: 22%
2. LaRose: 21%
3. Dolan: 15%
These polls show the race becoming more competitive as election day gets closer. The tides seem to be turning in Moreno’s favor. Based on the last two months of polling, my rough ballpark estimation is that Moreno has a slight lead with ~22%, followed by LaRose with ~20%, and Dolan in last with ~17%. Those numbers aren’t based on any math, though — it’s just a guess, for what it’s worth.
The General Election
Will Ohioans ditch a Democratic Senator for a Republican one? Looking at the past three Presidential elections may reveal the answer.
Ohio has nine “pivot counties” that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but voted for Trump in 2016 (for reference, there were 206 pivot counties total nationwide). Many of these counties are in northeastern Ohio, where deindustrialization has ravaged the economy. Ohio has 88 counties, so pivot counties comprise a whopping 10.2% of Ohio’s counties. If anything, this demonstrates that Ohio voters can be unpredictable.
Sen. Brown is popular among Ohioans and has the advantage of incumbency and name recognition — he will be a formidable opponent in November.
It’s worth mentioning that match-up polling tells a different story than Republican primary polling. In October 2023, Emerson College conducted a poll matching up the Republican candidates against Sen. Brown, which suggests that LaRose and Dolan are the only candidates who can win in the general election. According to the poll, when asked who they would vote for if the general election were held today, only LaRose and Dolan scored higher than Sen. Brown. Below are the results:
· 39% for LaRose vs. 38% for Brown
· 38% for Dolan vs. 36% for Brown
· 33% for Moreno vs 35% for Brown
Conclusion
It seems the winner of the 2024 Republican primary election will likely be either Moreno or LaRose (my money is Moreno). But this is still a tight race. As of writing this, there is still a month until election day — a lot can happen in that short time.
The general election will be an equally competitive race. Republicans must fight tooth and nail to defeat Sen. Brown. It’s still too early to tell, but currently I think Republicans will edge out a victory over Sen. Brown in November. Furthermore, I believe that Republicans will retake the Senate.
